Yeah, I've given up trying to time the housing market here in CA. About 4 years ago, I had money saved up to buy a house, but the prevailing theory was that after the tech crash there would be a housing bubble in the Bay Area. All the money had dried up, so foreclosures were soon to follow, which would drive prices down, etc. So instead of buying a house, I took my money and started a business.
As it turned out, instead of the top of the market it was actually the bottom of the market. My business was a success, and about a year later, I was in a position to look at houses again. Housing prices were up about 25% from the point when magazines were warning about the housing bubble, so I was pretty sure, again, that this was the top of the market. I bought anyways, because I could write off mortgage and home office expenses and because I wanted a yard so I could adopt some dogs.
Instead of being at the top of the market, the area where I bought turned out to be one of the hottest in the region and prices went up 25-30% each of the next two years. For the last year, prices have been relatively flat.
The prevailing thought right now is if the housing market in this area stays flat or goes down just slightly in the next 6-12 months, it will come back with a vengeance after that. If the housing market dips sharply, it may be several years before it comes back as investors unwind their holdings and flood the market.